Germany’s 49-euro ticket resulted in significant modal shift from road to rail

The state-subsidised 49-euro ”Deutschland-Ticket”, which allows you to travel by local and regional bus and rail throughout Germany for a month, has led to a significant shift in traffic from road to rail. This has now been determined by a research team from the Berlin-based climate research institute MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) for the Ariadne energy transition project funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. With regard to the future modal split, the announced price increase to 58 euros per month is highly counterproductive. Detailed results can be viewed interactively on a web-based German-language ”Ariadne D-Ticket Impact Tracker”.

The research team looked at the first 12 months since the introduction of the Deutschland-Ticket on 1 May 2023. It statistically evaluated mobile phone and car movement data for Germany, as well as data from a control group of eight other European countries. This allowed the team to determine the causal effect of the Deutschland-Ticket on peoples’s mobility behaviour for the first time.

According to the study, the Deutschland-Ticket increased the number of train journeys of more than 30 kilometres by 30.4 percent compared to what would have been the case without the measure. By contrast, personal transport was noticeably more moderate across all distances, with 7.6 percent fewer kilometres travelled by car. Because the Deutschland-Ticket did not change the total number of trips across all transport modes – including bike, plane, car and train – this means that the share of train journeys (“modal split”) rose from around 10 percent to 12 percent. This saved around 6.7 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions, corresponding to 4.7 percent of total transport emissions in Germany.

Based on their empirical analyses, the researchers also predict how the announced price increase will change people’s mobility behaviour, and thus emissions. At a special meeting on 23 September 2024, the transport ministers of the German federal states decided to increase the price of the Deutschland-Ticket from 49 to 58 euros per month. The research team concludes that train journeys may decrease by 14 percent as a result of the price increase, and that kilometres travelled by car may increase by 3.5 percent. This means that the price hike could almost halve the reduction in emissions achieved with the 49-euro ticket in its first year.

The statistical impact analysis, including changes in mobility patterns, differences between districts, and the extent of emission reductions, can be viewed in the interactive German-language Ariadne D-Ticket Impact Tracker.

Go to the D-Ticket Impact Tracker:
https://mcc-berlin-ariadne.shinyapps.io/dticket-tracker/