United Nations report: Current commitments not enough

Leading MCC scientists contributed to the new UNEP "Gap Report". It shows that even if the countries meet their Paris targets, global temperature could rise by 3°C.

Photo: Shutterstock / topten22photo

01.11.2017

Greenhouse gas emissions must be lowered even faster in the short term and the long-term goals should become more ambitious. This is the main result of the new “Gap Report” of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). To reduce emissions quickly and sustainably, the world must begin phasing out coal right now, the report recommends. Jan Steckel, group leader at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), was one of the two lead authors of the chapter "Coal Phase-Out". Two other MCC group leaders also contributed to the report.

Each year, the UNEP "Gap Report" determines the “gap” between the emissions reductions necessary to achieve the targets agreed upon in Paris and the likely emissions reductions from full implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). For the 2°C target, the report expects a gap of 11 to 13.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2030. This means that even if all countries fulfill their NDCs, 80 percent of the CO2 budget will be used up by then. Following this trajectory, global temperatures in 2100 could reach 3°C above pre-industrial levels.

Achieving the Paris goals is still possible, but countries’ efforts need to increase significantly—especially in terms of phasing out coal. Since coal-fired power plants have a very long lifetime, coal investments lead to a long-term technology "lock-in". New investments in coal should therefore be stopped immediately, say Jan Steckel, head of the MCC working group "Climate and Development”, and his co-authors. Moreover, existing power plants should be shut down rapidly. To achieve this the researchers recommend an abolition of fossil-fuel subsidies and the introduction of sufficiently high carbon prices.

The longer the world continues to use coal, the greater the dependence on negative emissions technologies in the second half of the century will be. These are technologies that filter out existing CO2 from the atmosphere. MCC group leaders Sabine Fuss and Jan Minx have recently conducted extensive research on this topic and contributed to the corresponding chapter in the report. The researchers found that there is a significant gap between the technological requirements needed to meet the climate goals and the current state of negative emissions technologies. It would therefore be negligent to postpone the coal phase-out and rely on these—so far barely proven—technologies. However, further research on these technologies is urgently required.