Zickfeld, K., MacIsaac, J., Canadell, J., Fuss, S., Jackson, R., Jones, C., Lohila, A., Matthews, H., Peters, G., Rogelj, J., Zaehle, S.

Net-zero approaches must consider Earth system impacts to achieve climate goals

in Nature Climate Change, 04.12.2023

Peer Review , Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change

Commitments to net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) or GHG emissions targets now cover 88% of countries’ emissions. Underlying the accounting behind net-zero frameworks is the assumption that emissions can be balanced with removals such that their net climate effect is zero. However, when considering the full climate impacts of CO₂ emissions and removals, there are reasons to expect that the two are not equivalent in terms of their climate outcomes. We identify potential contributors to non-equivalence, including impermanence, biophysical and non-CO₂ GHG effects, and argue that these non-equivalencies need to be accounted for to achieve climate goals. Given key uncertainties about the full climate impact of CO₂ removal, it is prudent to prioritize emission reductions over removals.