Liu, L., Jiang, H. D., Liang, Q. M., Creutzig, F., Liao, H., Yao, Y. F., Edenhofer O, ... & Wei, Y. M.

Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels

in Nature Climate Change, 06.02.2023

Arbeitspapiere , Directorate , Land Use, Infrastructure and Transport

The Russia–Ukraine conflict lays bare the dependence of the European Union (EU) on fossil fuel imports from Russia. Here, we use a global computable general equilibrium model, C3IAM/GEEPA, to estimate CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP) impact of embargoing fossil fuels from Russia. We find that embargoes induce more than 10% reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU and slight increases of emissions in Russia, while both regions experience GDP losses (around 2% for the EU and about 5% for Russia, ignoring the relative impact of other sanctions). Reacting to increasing energy prices with demand-side response inside the EU would increase CO2 emission savings, while turning GDP losses into gains. Implementing a partial embargo with tariffs largely compensates for lost government revenue.